| De wantrouwenspiraal |
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| Geschreven door Pieter Hilhorst |
| Dinsdag 17 Maart 2009 08:05 |
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Politici hebben geen hoge dunk van hun collega’s. Ze zijn er vaak als de kippen bij om vertegenwoordigers van andere partijen te verwijten dat ze handelen uit electorale motieven of dat ze politieke spelletjes spelen. Ze laten zich zo kennen als aanhangers van de opvatting dat politiek een voze bezigheid is waar het algemeen belang moeiteloos wordt opgeofferd aan het eigen belang. Als alle journalisten zouden schrijven dat andere journalisten om naam te maken leugens en onzin verkondigen, zou er van het vertrouwen in de journalistiek ook niet veel overblijven.
Dit wantrouwen betreft niet alleen de hedendaagse collega’s, maar nog veel meer de politici die het morgen voor het zeggen hebben. De meeste economen zijn het erover eens dat als het kabinet nu fors gaat bezuinigen de economische crisis zich verscherpt. De bestedingen nemen af, waardoor bedrijven nog meer met onverkoopbare voorraden worden opgescheept. Tegelijkertijd is het ook zonneklaar dat de schulden die de overheid nu maakt op termijn moeten worden afbetaald. Omdat het CDA niet vertrouwt dat deze of een volgende regering (waarin het CDA hoogstwaarschijnlijk ook weer zitting heeft) de benodigde maatregelen neemt, eisen de christendemocraten nu harde ingrepen. Zo zinspelen ze op een verhoging van de AOW-leeftijd van 65 naar 67 jaar. Het duurt jaren voor die verandering zijn beslag krijgt en levert nu dan ook geen enkele baan extra op. De grootste ruzie in het crisisoverleg gaat dus eigenlijk helemaal niet over de crisis van nu, het gaat over een crisis van de overheidsfinanciën in de toekomst. Het wantrouwen is niet alleen gericht op de collega’s, maar ook op de sociale partners. Paul de Beer, hoogleraar arbeidsverhoudingen aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam, heeft afgelopen week een pleidooi gehouden voor arbeidstijdverkorting. Het idee is simpel. Als er minder werk is, kunnen we het werk beter over meer mensen verdelen, dan sommigen voltijds te laten werken en anderen te ontslaan. Bij het Akkoord van Wassenaar uit 1982 werd destijds een algemene arbeidstijdverkorting ingeruild tegen de prijscompensatie. De Beer pleit nu niet voor een algemene arbeidstijdverkorting, maar voor arbeidstijdverkorting per sector of soms zelfs per bedrijf. De werknemers moeten daarvoor ook loon inleveren. Omdat de inflatie laag is, is het inleveren van prijscompensatie waarschijnlijk niet genoeg. In tegenstelling tot een ingreep in de AOW is dit een maatregel die zich richt op de nu stijgende werkloosheid. Toch vindt het pleidooi nauwelijks gehoor. Dat komt omdat de politieke partijen er geen vertrouwen in hebben dat de werknemers weer meer gaan werken als de vraag naar arbeid toeneemt. En de verwachting blijft dat er over een paar jaar weer krapte is op de arbeidsmarkt. Deze vrees is niet ongegrond. De arbeidstijdverkorting in de jaren tachtig heeft geleid tot een permanente vermindering van de gemiddelde werkweek. Maar het blijft vreemd om een verstandige maatregel (nu het werk eerlijk verdelen) niet te nemen omdat we bang zijn dat we morgen zullen verzuimen om een verstandige maatregel (weer meer te gaan werken als de vraag naar arbeid toeneemt) te nemen. Het wantrouwen van politici in elkaar en in sociale partners is op het eerste gezicht een vorm van gezonde zelfreflectie. In het verleden hebben politici de overheidsfinanciën uit de klauwen laten lopen. In het verleden hebben de vakbonden vastgehouden aan de kortere werkweek. Maar uiteindelijk is het een motie van wantrouwen tegen de burger. Economisch is het verstandig om te bezuinigen als de economie weer aantrekt. Maar dat kan betekenen dat er in het verkiezingsjaar 2011 fors wordt bezuinigd en de arbeidstijd weer wordt uitgebreid. Politici vrezen dat kiezers partijen die zulke besluiten nemen in het stemhokje zullen afstraffen. Blijkbaar gaan ze ervan uit dat kiezers zulke maatregelen niet begrijpen. In feite gaan ze ervan dat impopulaire maatregelen (als de verhoging van de AOW, de vergroening van de economie of de afschaffing van de hypotheekrenteaftrek) alleen kunnen worden verkocht in crisistijd, ook al helpen die maatregelen niets om de huidige crisis op te lossen. Het onderlinge wantrouwen van politici komt uiteindelijk voort uit een extreem lage dunk die politici hebben van de kiezer. Want wie geen impopulaire maatregelen durft voor te stellen uit angst voor een verkiezingsnederlaag, gaat ervan uit dat kiezers alleen naar hun portemonnee kijken. Wie een collega verwijt iets te doen uit electorale motieven, impliceert dat de kiezer kortzichtig is. Wie een ander verwijt dat hij politieke spelletjes speelt, impliceert dat de kiezer daar in trapt. Wie denkt dat het volk dom is, moet constant op zijn hoede zijn dat andere politici van die domheid geen misbruik maken. |
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