| De zachte winst van de harde aanpak |
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| Geschreven door Pieter Hilhorst |
| Woensdag 22 April 2009 13:05 |
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De zachte winst van de harde aanpak Eén opgesloten veelpleger is volgens de onderzoekers zo'n afschrikwekkend voorbeeld, dat 28 andere daardoor op het rechte pad blijven. Parool (11-4-2009)
Veelplegers zijn doorgaans verslaafde mannen die geregeld tegen de lamp lopen voor winkeldiefstal, tasjesroof, auto-inbraken en andere lichte vergrijpen. De meest actieve veelplegers vormen maar 1 % van het totale aantal criminelen, maar zijn wel verantwoordelijk voor ruim 10 procent van de totale criminaliteit. Als het bericht uit het Parool klopt is dat dus uitermate goed nieuws. De onderzoekers waarover wordt gesproken zijn Ben van Velthoven en Deborah Moolenaar. In Justitiële Verkenningen (nr 2/09) publiceerden zij een verkenning van de kosten en baten van een nieuwe hardere aanpak van deze doelgroep. Sinds 2001 kunnen veelplegers na een licht vergrijp waar normaal een lichte straf voor staat toch voor twee jaar worden opgesloten als ze al veelvuldig in de fout zijn gegaan. De afschrikkingwekkende werking van deze maatregel zou volgens het Parool zo groot zijn dat voor elke opgesloten veelpleger 28 andere veelplegers op het rechte pad blijven. Het onderzoek had betrekking op 300 opgesloten veelplegers. Als het Parool gelijk heeft zouden er dus 8400 veelplegers geen misdaden meer plegen. Een nogal opzienbarende conclusie omdat de onderzoekers stellen dat er maar 5900 veelplegers zijn! Er zouden dan meer mensen genezen zijn dan er ziek waren! Van een afname van het aantal veelplegers is echter geen sprake. Hun aantal blijft constant. Het afschrikkingseffect van de opsluiting voor twee jaar blijkt niet meer dan een aanname. De onderzoekers baseren zich op het feit dat sinds 2005 het gemiddeld aantal processen-verbaal per veelpleger sinds 2005 licht daalde ten opzichte van de jaren daarvoor. De onderzoekers veronderstellen vervolgens dat dit komt door de dreiging van een opsluiting voor twee jaar. In het artikel staat ook dat het niet meer is dan een veronderstelling. Van Velthoven: “We hebben geen veelplegers gesproken. Het zijn twee dingen die tegelijkertijd gebeuren. Vanaf 1 januari 2005 komen meer veelplegers in aanmerking voor opsluiting. Vanaf dat moment daalt ook het gemiddeld aantal processen-verbaal. Wij hebben aangenomen dat een plus een twee is.” Er zijn wel redenen om te twijfelen aan deze afschrikwekkende werking. Veelplegers zijn zoals blijkt uit onderzoek van het Verweij Jonker instituut niet alleen verslaafd, ze hebben ook vaak psychiatrische problemen en een geschiedenis van trauma’s. De kritiek van het Verweij Jonker instituut is dat de behandeling tijdens de opsluiting nog vaak te kort schiet. Als het zoveel moeite kost om veelplegers op een ander spoor te krijgen, valt niet te verwachten dat alleen de dreiging van opsluiting hen wel tot inkeer zou brengen. Een andere bedenking is dat sinds 2005 het aantal processen-verbaal niet verder is gedaald terwijl het aantal opgesloten veelplegers en daarmee de dreiging wel is toegenomen. Voor de daling in 2005 zijn bovendien veel andere verklaringen mogelijk. Het kan dalen omdat de politie meerdere misdaden opspaart in één proces-verbaal zodat het Openbaar Ministerie een hogere straf kan eisen. Het eerlijke antwoord is dat we het gewoon niet weten. Met de veronderstelling dat de daling louter en alleen komt door de mogelijkheid om veelplegers op te sluiten, zijn de onderzoekers vervolgens aan het rekenen geslagen. Zo komen ze erop uit dat elke opgesloten veelpleger tot 28 processen-verbaal minder leidt bij de veelplegers die niet voor twee jaar zijn opgesloten. Daar hebben we de magische 28 van het Parool. Vervolgens berekenen ze wat de maatschappelijke winst daarvan zou zijn. Voor de Telegraaf was dat het grootste nieuws (10-4-2009). De krant meldt dat elke opgesloten veelpleger de maatschappij vier miljoen bespaart, maar vergeet erbij te vermelden dat die winst grotendeels is gebaseerd op een uitermate zachte veronderstelling over de afschrikwekkende werking van opsluiting op andere veelplegers. Het opsluiten van veelplegers kan best een goed idee zijn, maar het is op zijn minst misleidend om een schatting als een voldongen feit in de krant te zetten. |
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